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Market Signals Weekly Update Posted on 06-20-2022

Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

  • Most commodities were sharply lower Friday due to inflation concerns, lower energy prices and Fed raising interest rates.
  • Inflation also raised concern of lower US/World economies. Some feel Ukraine war is 30 pct of higher inflation and will continue into 2023.
  • US fall grain exports are projected to be record high but there is concern about truck and rail logistics and slow farmer selling.
  • Last week, July soybean futures traded from $17.84 to a low near $16.82. This due lower US equities and concern veg oil demand/China soybean demand.
  • Trade now estimates US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 175 versus 205 USDA. Trade estimates US 2022/23 carryout at 125.
  • Last week July corn futures traded from $7.58 to $8.00. US Midwest 2 week forecast is dry but normal temps. US cash basis is strong
  • Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,350 versus USDA 1,485. Trade estimates US 2022/23 carryout at 1,200. Key is final crop size.
  • Last week, July Chicago wheat futures traded from $11.00 to near $10.30.  Talk of increase Ukraine and Russia exports weighed on futures.
  • Better US and Canada HRS improved, US HRW harvest pressure and rains in EU offset dryness in Black Sea and Argentina
  • US corn crop was rated 73 pct G/E, soybeans 70 pct G/E, winter wheat 31 pct G/E and spring wheat 63 pct G/E.

Performance Charts

Now you can review the price and performance history of the Market Signals group back to 2011.
Click Unsold pieces to reveal Recommendations, when applicable.

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalents).


2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
06-20-2022 Board Settle Price: $7.3100

2023-crop

(December 2023 Futures)
06-20-2022 Board Settle Price: $6.4500

2022-crop

(November 2022 Futures)
06-20-2022 Board Settle Price: $15.3750

2023-crop

(November 2023 Futures)
06-20-2022 Board Settle Price: $14.0150

Chicago Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
06-20-2022 Board Settle Price: $10.3425

Chicago Wheat 2023-crop

(July 2023 Futures)
06-20-2022 Board Settle Price: $10.5750

KC Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
06-20-2022 Board Settle Price: $11.0500

KC Wheat 2023-crop

(July 2023 Futures)
06-20-2022 Board Settle Price: $10.8225

MPLS Wheat 2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
06-20-2022 Board Settle Price: $11.7550

MPLS Wheat 2023-crop

(December 2023 Futures)
06-20-2022 Board Settle Price: $10.7050

ADM is providing this communication for informational purposes, and it is not a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell commodities. The sources for the information in this communication are believed to be reliable, but ADM does not warrant the accuracy of the information. The information in this communication is subject to change without notice. If applicable, any information and/or recommendations in this communication do not take into account any particular individual's or company's objectives or needs, which should be considered before engaging in any commodity transactions based on these recommendations. ADM or its affiliates may hold or take positions for their own accounts that are different from the positions recommended in this communication.