ADM Farm Direct Fertilizer Report

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Call Summary:

Urea: Slower demand over the next 45 days. US cheaper than world prices so inventory won’t build due to import values trading higher than US values. We believe downside is limited to less than $5-$10 dollars and expect upside to be more like $30-$40. Recommending coverage for spring prices including top-dress window.

Phosphate: Market has moved up $40 dollars from historic lows. Production cuts of over 600kt has been removed from 1st Quarter. We expect another $30 dollars of upside movement on Fall pricing, due to production cuts and global demand remaining firm. Mosaic announced new price of $285 Nola for spring, indicating another immediate $10 dollar move.

Potash: North American producers offer fill price down $20 from the fall. Orders must be submitted by next week before price rises back up $20 according to the program rules. Oversupply remains, but now more in the hands of producers than retailers. Producers remain disciplined in cutting tons from the market. US trading discount to global prices by $20 dollars per ton. Our recommendation to get prices locked in for spring and fall.

Sulfate: Outlook is weak, prices have drifted $10 dollars per ton. Oversupply will limit price upside in spring.


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