ADM Farm Direct Fertilizer Report

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7/20/2022

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Call Summary:

Grain

  • Supply concerns were the primary driver behind sharp market rallies.
  • Higher prices and aggressive buying have reduced demand some.
  • There is still demand out there to cover, but without it, markets may continue to soften.

 

Fertilizer

  • Nitrogen
    • Consider locking in 25-50% of your urea for 2023.
    • Consider locking in 35-50% of your UAN needs now, but be aware of the energy complex impacting the market.
  • Phosphate
    • There is still some time to buy, but don’t delay until November to pull the trigger for fall needs.
  • Potash
    • There is still some time to buy, but don’t delay until November to pull the trigger for fall needs.
  • Sulfate
    • There is time to buy on sulfate. Prices have reset and there are opportunities to lock in better values.
  • Fertilizer movement from China remains a huge factor. We’ve seen the floor price of energy move up a little bit in China, and while tons are starting to flow out, that could change quickly with inflation.
  • Hand-to-mouth buying occurring in every region is allowing the system to carry less risk, but we’ll see a quicker spike in prices because of lack of inventory being carried throughout the global market.

 

Our next conference call will be August 17. We hope you can join us.

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