ADM Farm Direct Fertilizer Report
Listen to the latest report
If you’d like to call in and listen to the next month’s report live while it’s happening, sign up below for Fertilizer News and Information.
- Corrected over $100/tn from 2018 to 2019 into 2020. Production cost for phosphate are$265, Nola has traded at $245.
- Spread between Phosphates vs grain is the largest that it has been in a long time.
- Prices could go down, but you need to consider locking in margin, not only for nearby but looking forward to 2020.
- To sustain prices, there will have to be larger production shut downs.
- Recommendation: You should have your needs bot. Consider tons for fall 2020.
- Market will most likely be flat into Q4/Q1 with no massive correction.
- Traders and exporters prefer cash to inventory. The current market has enabled domestic producers opportunities to have supply.
- Overall this is a nitrogen equation, not just urea. The market needs to balance out.
- Long ammonia in Canada, low likelihood that tons will move to the ground.
- Need ammonia to balance out nitrogen equation.
- Midwest delivered prices will most likely be proud walking into the spring season, spring Logistics will be a concern.
- Northern states may feel a lack of resupply on ammonia and may have to manage a carry market in UAN.
- Urea will stay flat. Recommendation is to have 60% coverage in the next 30 days. (Yes, there may be downside but in a short window.)
- No massive price discount although the market is oversupplied; producers will likely protect their values.
- Importers will keep a balanced hand.
- Potential for a 10-15$ move lower – but remember it is an oligopoly market.
- Logistics will be a concern moving into spring.
- Fall freight has not been a big concern but moving into Mar/April will be rough.
Please contact me so we can have a conversation about Farm Direct Fertilizer.