Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

• Planting progress pegged at 96% corn (97% trade vs 91% on average).
• Soybean planting progress was released at 91% (92% trade vs 76% on average).
• Spring wheat planting is at 93% (94% trade and 93% on average).
• With recent drought development on the US Drought monitor, conditions of the crop may be more important than most of the time.
• 64% of corn crop is Good-to-Excellent as compared to 67% trade estimates, 69% last week and 73% a year ago.
• This is the first week for ratings on the soybean crop, NASS estimates that 62% of the soybeans are Good-to-Excellent versus the trade expecting 65%.
• Spring Wheat has a rating of 64% Good-to-Excellent vs 66% is what the trade was estimating.
• Although there has been an uptick in Managed Money (funds) positions during the last week, estimates are that funds are short 51,000 corn contracts, about even soybeans, short 38,000 soyoil, long 60,000 SB meal, short 127,000 Chicago Wheat and long 10,000 of KC wheat.  Managed Money long positions have mostly been reduced to a fraction of what was seen during the last 6-12 months.  Because of this, funds are more of a neutral position currently and have the ability increase length or short the market.
• Today’s export inspections were in line with trade estimates but there is overall concern in the trade that the US will not meet the USDA export forecast due the lagging pace for corn and soybeans.  Wheat Export Inspections (loadings) are less than last year on the first week of the new marketing year 10,714 million bushels compared to 14,377 last year at this time.

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