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Market Signals Weekly Update Posted on 01-18-2022

Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

  • US equity was lower on talk of higher US interest rates. Energy futures were higher on less concern over Omicron virus.
  • US Dollar has turned higher. Goldman Sachs estimates 16 pct increase in 2022 commodity prices led by energy.
  • March soybean futures traded down to $13.49 on talk of better Argentina rains. Key is final US demand. US Dec soybean crush was record high.
  • March corn futures may be continuing to establish a wide range between $5.85 and $6.15. Increase US export demand offers support.
  • WH and KWH traded down to $7.41 and $7.45 on fact US export prices are noncompetitive. Rally in prices today on fear over Russia and Ukraine tension.
  • USDA Dec 1 corn stocks suggested higher percent on farm than average. Dec 1 soybean on farm stocks were higher than last year and Wheat record low.
  • Some have raised US corn export demand due to lower South America supply. Trade watching demand for US soybean and soyoil with Palm oil at new highs.
  • US farmer is bullish with 60 pct 2021 corn sold and 70 pct 2021 soybean sold. Most feel US farmer only 10-15 new 2022 crop sold.
  • US farmer watching cost of production increasing and need for higher new crop prices to decide acres in 2022 by crop.
  • US domestic grain movement slowed due to weather and drop in jobs due to Covid spread. Higher barge freight = lower basis at the elevators.

Performance Charts

Now you can review the price and performance history of the Market Signals group back to 2011.
Click Unsold pieces to reveal Recommendations, when applicable.

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalents).


2021-crop

(March 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $5.9950

2021-crop

(March 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $5.9950

2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $5.5775

2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $5.5775

2021-crop

(March 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $13.6125

2021-crop

(March 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $13.6125

2022-crop

(November 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $12.8400

2022-crop

(November 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $12.8400

Chicago Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $7.5950

Chicago Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $7.5950

Chicago Wheat 2023-crop

(July 2023 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $7.3975

Chicago Wheat 2023-crop

(July 2023 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $7.3975

KC Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $7.7700

KC Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $7.7700

KC Wheat 2023-crop

(July 2023 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $7.5075

KC Wheat 2023-crop

(July 2023 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $7.5075

MPLS Wheat 2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $8.6400

MPLS Wheat 2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
01-18-2022 Board Settle Price: $8.6400

ADM is providing this communication for informational purposes, and it is not a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell commodities. The sources for the information in this communication are believed to be reliable, but ADM does not warrant the accuracy of the information. The information in this communication is subject to change without notice. If applicable, any information and/or recommendations in this communication do not take into account any particular individual's or company's objectives or needs, which should be considered before engaging in any commodity transactions based on these recommendations. ADM or its affiliates may hold or take positions for their own accounts that are different from the positions recommended in this communication.