Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

• US equity was lower on talk of higher US interest rates. Energy futures were higher on less concern over Omicron virus.
• US Dollar has turned higher. Goldman Sachs estimates 16 pct increase in 2022 commodity prices led by energy.
• March soybean futures traded down to $13.49 on talk of better Argentina rains. Key is final US demand. US Dec soybean crush was record high.
• March corn futures may be continuing to establish a wide range between $5.85 and $6.15. Increase US export demand offers support.
• WH and KWH traded down to $7.41 and $7.45 on fact US export prices are noncompetitive. Rally in prices today on fear over Russia and Ukraine tension.
• USDA Dec 1 corn stocks suggested higher percent on farm than average. Dec 1 soybean on farm stocks were higher than last year and Wheat record low.
• Some have raised US corn export demand due to lower South America supply. Trade watching demand for US soybean and soyoil with Palm oil at new highs.
• US farmer is bullish with 60 pct 2021 corn sold and 70 pct 2021 soybean sold. Most feel US farmer only 10-15 new 2022 crop sold.
• US farmer watching cost of production increasing and need for higher new crop prices to decide acres in 2022 by crop.
• US domestic grain movement slowed due to weather and drop in jobs due to Covid spread. Higher barge freight = lower basis at the elevators.

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