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Market Signals Weekly Update Posted on 09-20-2021

Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

  • Damage from Hurricane Ida to US gulf export terminals continues to delay US exports.
  • Uncertain China property policy and slowdown in demand weighed on financial and commodity markets.
  • Talk of passage of large US spending legislation could increase US debt and raise US individual and corporate taxes.
  • Technical chart selling accelerated below key prices. Some feel corn, soybean and wheat are oversold but direction is still lower.
  • USDA rates US corn 58% G/E, soybeans 57% G/E. Corn harvest is estimated at 10 pct, soybean 5 pct and with US winter wheat planting 22 pct. US Midwest is dry.
  • USDA est US Sep corn yield near 176.3 vs 174.6 in August. Soybean yield 50.6 versus 50.0 in August.
  • USDA est US 21/22 corn exports near 2,475 mil bu vs 2,775 last year. USDA est carryout 1,408 vs USDA 1,242.
  • USDA est US 21/22 soybean exports near 2,090 mil bu vs 2,260 last year. Crush 2,180 vs 2,140. USDA est carryout 185.
  • USDA estimates US 21/22 wheat carryout near 615 mil bu vs 627. World 21/22 wheat end stocks 283 mmt vs 292 last year.
  • Market needs more US 2022 corn, soybean, wheat, sorghum, oat and canola acres. Higher fertilizer and energy cost could drop farmer profits.
  • Last week, one group est US 2022 corn acres near 94.3 vs 93.7 ly, soybeans 86.6 vs 87.4 and all wheat 48.5 vs 46.9.

Performance Charts

Now you can review the price and performance history of the Market Signals group back to 2011.
Click Unsold pieces to reveal Recommendations, when applicable.

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalents).


2021-crop

(December 2021 Futures)
09-20-2021 Board Settle Price: $5.2175

2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
09-20-2021 Board Settle Price: $5.0175

2021-crop

(November 2021 Futures)
09-20-2021 Board Settle Price: $12.6250

2022-crop

(November 2022 Futures)
09-20-2021 Board Settle Price: $12.4000

Chicago Wheat 2021-crop

(December 2021 Futures)
09-20-2021 Board Settle Price: $7.0075

Chicago Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
09-20-2021 Board Settle Price: $6.9975

KC Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
09-20-2021 Board Settle Price: $7.0675

MPLS Wheat 2021-crop

(December 2021 Futures)
09-20-2021 Board Settle Price: $8.9400

MPLS Wheat 2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
09-20-2021 Board Settle Price: $7.7950

ADM is providing this communication for informational purposes, and it is not a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell commodities. The recommendations in this communication do not take into account any particular individual's or company's objectives or needs, which should be considered before engaging in any commodity transactions based on these recommendations. The sources for the information and recommendations in this communication are believed to be reliable, but ADM does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of the information or recommendations. ADM or its affiliates may hold or take positions for their own accounts that are different from the positions recommended in this communication. The information and recommendations in this communication are subject to change without notice.