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Market Signals Weekly Update Posted on 07-19-2021

Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

  • Extremely volatile trade on uncertainty of US economy, increase of virus cases and talk of inflation.
  • Nearby corn futures traded today back to near the opening of the July 6 gap and $5.71. Dry US NW weather is supportive.
  • Trade estimates US 2021 corn crop near 14,874 mil bu versus USDA 15,165 and 21/22 carryout near 930 vs USDA 1,432.
  • WOB estimates World corn trade near a record 199 mmt; US 63, Brazil 43, Ukraine 30, Argentina 36 and China imports near 26 mmt.
  • Nearby soybean futures also traded today back to near $14.31. November tested $14.18. Lower Crude trade weighed on prices today.
  • Trade estimates US 2021 soybean crop near NASS 4,405 mil bu and 21/22 carryout near 120 vs USDA 155. Key is China demand.
  • WOB estimates World soybean trade near a record 172 mmt; US 56, Brazil 93 and China imports near 102 mmt.
  • Nearby Chicago wheat futures rallied to near $7.09, KC $6.68 and Minn wheat near $9.44. Dry US/Canada HRS weather is supportive.
  • Managed Funds are long to 214,000 contracts corn, soybean long to 86,000 and Chicago wheat long 3,000.
  • WOB estimated global wheat crop near 792 mmt; EU 138, China 136, India 108, Russia 85, US 47, Canada 31, Australia 28.
  • WOB global wheat trade near 204 mmt vs 201 last year. Rússia 40, EU 34, Canada 23, US 24, Austrália 20, Ukraine 21.
  • Corn, soybean, soyoil and wheat technically tested key resistance but failed to trade/close over.

Performance Charts

Now you can review the price and performance history of the Market Signals group back to 2011.
Click Unsold pieces to reveal Recommendations, when applicable.

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalents).


2021-crop

(December 2021 Futures)
07-19-2021 Board Settle Price: $5.5225

2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
07-19-2021 Board Settle Price: $4.9575

2021-crop

(November 2021 Futures)
07-19-2021 Board Settle Price: $13.7275

2022-crop

(November 2022 Futures)
07-19-2021 Board Settle Price: $12.6475

Chicago Wheat 2021-crop

(September 2021 Futures)
07-19-2021 Board Settle Price: $6.9775

Chicago Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
07-19-2021 Board Settle Price: $7.0025

KC Wheat 2021-crop

(September 2021 Futures)
07-19-2021 Board Settle Price: $6.5225

KC Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
07-19-2021 Board Settle Price: $6.6175

MPLS Wheat 2021-crop

(December 2021 Futures)
07-19-2021 Board Settle Price: $9.1100

MPLS Wheat 2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
07-19-2021 Board Settle Price: $7.6050

ADM is providing this communication for informational purposes, and it is not a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell commodities. The recommendations in this communication do not take into account any particular individual's or company's objectives or needs, which should be considered before engaging in any commodity transactions based on these recommendations. The sources for the information and recommendations in this communication are believed to be reliable, but ADM does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of the information or recommendations. ADM or its affiliates may hold or take positions for their own accounts that are different from the positions recommended in this communication. The information and recommendations in this communication are subject to change without notice.