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Market Signals Weekly Update Posted on 09-13-2021

Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

  • Hurricane Ida caused electric outages at US gulf export terminals. A few will be operational soon
  • Tropical storm Nicholas could drop heavy rain along TX coast, LA and US Delta
  • Farmer selling has slowed. Some feel cash market will need corn and soybean which suggest higher basis narrow spreads.
  • Technical chart selling accelerated below key prices. Some feel corn, soybean and wheat are oversold but direction is still lower
  • Weekly US corn and soybean exports were well below average and last year due to lack of gulf exports
  • USDA est US Sep corn yield near 176.3 vs 174.6 in August. Soybean yield 50.6 versus 50.0 in August
  • USDA est US 21/22 corn exports near 2,475 mil bu vs 2,775 last year. USDA est carryout 1,408 vs USDA 1,242
  • USDA est US 21/22 soybean exports near 2,090 mil bu vs 2,260 last year. Crush 2,180 vs 2,140. USDA est carryout 185 vs USDA 155
  • USDA estimates US 21/22 wheat carryout near 615 mil bu vs 627. World 21/22 wheat end stocks 283 mmt vs 292 last year
  • USDA rates US corn 59 G/E, soybeans 57 G/E, corn harvest 5 pct and US winter wheat planting 12 pct.
  • US Midwest is dry.
  • Market needs more US 2022 corn, soybean, wheat, sorghum, oat and canola acres. Higher fertilizer and energy cost could drop farmer profits

Performance Charts

Now you can review the price and performance history of the Market Signals group back to 2011.
Click Unsold pieces to reveal Recommendations, when applicable.

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalents).


2021-crop

(December 2021 Futures)
09-13-2021 Board Settle Price: $5.1325

2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
09-13-2021 Board Settle Price: $4.9850

2021-crop

(November 2021 Futures)
09-13-2021 Board Settle Price: $12.8475

2022-crop

(November 2022 Futures)
09-13-2021 Board Settle Price: $12.5800

Chicago Wheat 2021-crop

(December 2021 Futures)
09-13-2021 Board Settle Price: $6.8700

Chicago Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
09-13-2021 Board Settle Price: $6.9025

KC Wheat 2022-crop

(July 2022 Futures)
09-13-2021 Board Settle Price: $6.9150

MPLS Wheat 2021-crop

(December 2021 Futures)
09-13-2021 Board Settle Price: $8.7600

MPLS Wheat 2022-crop

(December 2022 Futures)
09-13-2021 Board Settle Price: $7.6075

ADM is providing this communication for informational purposes, and it is not a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell commodities. The recommendations in this communication do not take into account any particular individual's or company's objectives or needs, which should be considered before engaging in any commodity transactions based on these recommendations. The sources for the information and recommendations in this communication are believed to be reliable, but ADM does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of the information or recommendations. ADM or its affiliates may hold or take positions for their own accounts that are different from the positions recommended in this communication. The information and recommendations in this communication are subject to change without notice.