Marketing Partners Advisory: Weekly Conference Call Recap

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group of Marketing Partners Advisory.

Discussion Items :

  • Marketing Partners have increased 2019 soybean cash sale to 15% at $9.50.
  • Marketing Partners have sold 10% of 2020 soybeans with a cash sale at the market.
  • Marketing Partners have sold 10% of 2019 Chicago wheat with a cash sale at $5.50.
  • Marketing Partners have sold 10% of 2020 Chicago wheat with a cash sale at $5.70.
  • Marketing Partners have sold 5% of 2019 corn with a cash sale at the market.
  • Marketing Partners have sold 5% of 2019 corn with a cash sale at $4.75.
  • USDA has lowered U.S. 2019 corn planted acres 3 million acres and yield 10 bushels per acre to 166.
  • Guesses for reduced U.S. 2019 corn acres range from 3 million acres to 12 million acres.
  • There is talk of increased prevent plant corn acres in South Dakota. 
  • USDA 2019/20 corn carryout is estimated near 1,675 million bushels versus 2,195 this year.
  • USDA 2019/20 soybean carryout is estimated near 1,045 million bushels versus 1,070 this year.
  • USDA 2019/20 wheat carryout is estimated near 1,072 million bushels vs 1,102 last year.
  • U.S. farmers are looking to buy corn calls to replace sold inventories.
  • USDA rates the U.S. 2019 winter wheat crop at 63% good to excellent; spring wheat 81% good to excellent.
  • USDA rates the U.S. 2019 corn crop at 59% good to excellent versus 77% last year at this time.
  • On July 11, USDA could lower U.S. corn exports 75-125 million bushels, wheat 50-75 million bushels, and soybeans 25-50 million bushels.
  • There is no news concerning U.S. and China trade negotiations. 
  • Corn, soybean and wheat markets re approaching overbought, but there are no signs of a reversal down in prices.