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Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items :

  • MS has no new cash grain or oilseed recommendations at this time.
  • Managed funds are net long 257,000 soybean contracts, 98,000 soymeal, 85,000 soyoil and 262,000 corn.
  • Wheat futures dropped on better rains in Russia, U.S. south plains and Argentina.
  • Rains in Brazil and Argentina may help early germination and finish 2021 crops plantings.
  • Corn futures supported by increased demand for U.S. export especially to China.
  • U.S. corn harvest is near 72 percent done vs. 56 average and soybeans 83 percent done vs. 73 average.
  • Trade estimates U.S. 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,770 versus USDA Oct guess of 2,167.
  • Trade estimates U.S. 2020/21 corn exports at 2,600 versus USDA 2,325 million bushels and 1,778 last year.
  • Trade estimates U.S. 2020/21 soybean carryout at 170 versus USDA Oct guess of 290.
  • Trade estimates U.S. 2020/21 soybean exports at 2,350 versus USDA 2,200 million bushels and 1,676 last year.
  • USDA rated the 2021 winter wheat crop at only 41 percent good/ex versus 56 last year. KS is 29 percent.
  • U.S. financial markets traded lower on a lack of a new stimulus deal and long liquidation before U.S. elections.
  • USTR said China has bought 71 percent of $30 billion dollars of U.S. Ag goods under the Phase 1 trade deal.
  • This week, China is having their 5-year economic outlook meeting. Some feel they will call for increased infrastructure spending which could suggest more base metals and raw material imports.

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