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Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

  • Nearby corn futures dropped from $6.84 to $6.29 on talk in South America imports and good U.S. spring weather, then rallied to $6.98 on higher demand.
  • Nearby soybean futures dropped from $15.74 to $14.90 on talk in South America imports, then rallied to $15.63 on higher soyoil demand.
  • Nearby wheat futures dropped from $7.69 to $7.11 following corn, then rallied to $7.53 U.S. north plain and Canada weather concerns.
  • World vegoil prices traded higher on talk of increased U.S. biofuel. Concern about lower India demand due to virus cases increase offered resistance.
  • World soymeal prices continue to drift sideways to lower on concern about China demand and higher U.S. crush for soyoil.
  • Two-week U.S. Midwest weather forecast could help U.S. crops. Summer could be warm with normal to below rains but the U.S. north plains could be warm and dry.
  • U.S. corn plantings near 46 percent done, soybean near 24 percent. Spring wheat planting is near 49 percent done and Winter wheat condition at 48 percent G/E.
  • USDA estimated U.S. 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,352 million bushels. Private estimates are near 1,100. Key is final exports.
  • USDA estimated U.S. 2020/21 soybean carryout near 120 million bushels. Private estimates are near 100. Key is final supply versus crush demand.
  • USDA estimated U.S. 2021/22 wheat carryout near 770 million bushels. Key to U.S. 2021/22 carryout will be global weather versus trade.
  • Managed funds are net long 180,000 soybean contracts, 390,000 corn and long 11,000 Chicago wheat. Funds may be reducing due to increase price limits.
  • Farmer should continue to use a scale up cash selling for new crop sales. Still, prices have yet to trade any summer weather problems.

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