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Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

  • Soybeans, corn and wheat futures traded lower on concern about nearby U.S. export demand.
  • Corn futures direction could be linked to how much demand for U.S. corn tightens U.S. supply.
  • Soybean futures direction could be linked to South America crop sizes and export pace.
  • Soybean futures could also be dependent upon how much demand for U.S. soybeans tighten U.S. supply.
  • Wheat futures will respond to direction of financial markets and outlook for U.S. 2021 wheat supplies.
  • Wheat futures may also respond to future Russia wheat exports and export policy.
  • Trade expects USDA to drop U.S. 2020/21 corn carryout on their March 9 report.
  • Trade expects USDA to keep U.S. 2020/21 soybean carryout near their Feb guess on their March 9 report.
  • Trade expects USDA to keep U.S. 2020/21 wheat carryout near their Feb guess on their March 9 report.
  • Trade expects USDA to estimate U.S. 2021 corn, soybean and wheat acres near 227 million acres vs 217 last year.
  • Managed funds are net long 165,000 soybean contracts, 358,000 corn and 24,000 wheat.
  • SK trading range could be 13.50-14.30, CK 5.20-5.60 and WK 6.30-6.80. Technical signals have turned negative.

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