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Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

  • Nearby corn futures dropped today to $6.58. Late June normal US Midwest weather forecast weighed on prices.
  • Nearby soybean futures dropped today to $14.72 and November tested $13.96. Slow export demand and bearish USDA report weighed on prices.
  • Nearby Chicago wheat futures dropped today to $6.73. KC to $6.26. Approaching US harvest weighed on futures.
  • Funds liquidated long grain positions on strong seasonal that futures make tops in June and slowdown in export demand.
  • US corn crop was rated 68 pct G/E.  Soybeans rated 62 pct G/E. Spring wheat rated 37 pct G/E. Winter wheat harvest 4 pct done.
  • Managed funds are net long 114,000 soybean contracts, 275,000 corn and short 11,000 Chicago wheat. Increase volatility reducing trade and open interest.
  • US farmer corn and soybean new crop selling has slowed but still above normal. Most willing to increase selling on rallies.
  • Corn, soybean, soyoil and wheat technical signals are negative but weather markets are extremely volatile.
  • Weather is dry in US north plains and parts of the US NW Midwest. Rains continue in east and Delta.
  • USDA estimated US 2020/21 corn carryout is 1,107, soybean 135(lower crush) and wheat 852
  • USDA estimated US 2021/22 corn carryout is 1,357, soybean 155 and wheat 770

 

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