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Market Signals Weekly Report

By ADM Grain Marketing

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items:

  • MS recommends selling 10 percent 2021 corn at 4.80 CZ.
  • MS recommends selling 5 percent 2021 soybean at 12.75 SX.
  • MS recommends selling 10 percent 2021 wheat at 6.75 WN.
  • MS recommends selling 10 percent 2021 MLS wheat at 6.50 MWN.
  • MS recommends selling 10 percent 2021 MLS wheat at 6.75 MWN.
  • MS recommends selling 10 percent 2021 MLS wheat at 6.85 MWN.
  • MS recommends selling 10 percent 2021 KC wheat at 7.00 KWN.
  • MS recommends selling 10 percent 2022 KC wheat at 6.50 KWN.
  • MS recommends selling 10 percent 2022 KC wheat at 6.60 KWN.
  • USDA January report was bullish to prices due to lower U.S. 2020 corn and soybean crops.
  • South America weather appears to be improving. Some feel Brazil and Argentina corn crops near 146 million metric tons versus USDA 156.
  • Brazil and Argentina soybean crop could be near 174 million metric tons versus USDA 181.
  • Technically, soybeans, soymeal and corn futures may be overbought and due for a correction.
  • U.S. soybean export commit is near 55.6 million metric tons versus 30.4 last year. USDA goal is 60.6 million metric tons versus 45.7 last year.
  • U.S. corn export commit is near 45.3 million metric tons versus 19.3 last year. USDA goal is 64.7 million metric tons versus 67.3 last month and 45.1 last year.
  • World wheat prices have firmed on talk of lower Russia and EU wheat exports.
  • USDA estimated U.S. 2021 winter wheat acres at 32.0 million versus 30.4 last year, HRW 22.3 versus 21.3 ly.
  • USDA estimated U.S. 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,552 million bushels versus USDA 1,702 due to lower supply.
  • USDA estimated U.S. 2020/21 soybean carryout at 140 million bushels versus USDA 175 due to higher U.S. exports and crush.
  • Some still feel March 2021 corn futures and March 2021 soybean futures could trend higher to increase U.S. 2021 acres.
  • Hope for increase 2021 U.S. food, feed and fuel demand could be slowed due to slow vaccine inoculation pace and increase in new cases.
  • China corn and wheat futures are making new highs. Paris and Russia wheat futures are also making new highs.

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