Market Signals Weekly Report
The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.
Discussion Items :
- MS has no new cash recommendations. Open old crop Dec orders will be rolled to March.
- Managed funds are net long 204,000 soybean contracts, 71,000 soymeal, 105,000 soyoil and 287,000 corn.
- Continued positive news today on a virus vaccine supported higher U.S. stock market and most Commodity prices.
- Hope for increased 2021 U.S. food, feed and fuel demand if there is a reliable vaccine raised talk of 2021 inflation.
- November 30 selloff linked in part to better Brazil rains forecast and U.S. farmer selling has slowed.
- Soybean, corn and soyoil futures had become technically overbought.
- Some still feel March 2021 corn futures and March 2021 soybean futures could trend higher to increase U.S. 2021 acres.
- Most feel U.S. farmer will sell a January rally to begin to pay 2021 bills.
- Trade still estimates U.S. 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,550 million bushels versus USDA 1,702 due to higher export demand.
- Trade still estimates U.S. 2020/21 soybean carryout at 100 million bushels versus USDA 190 due to dryness in South America and higher U.S. exports.
- USDA estimates World 2020/21 wheat end stocks at a record 320.4 mmt versus 300.7 last year.
- Russia subsidizing domestic flour buyers which could keep wheat exports available.