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Market Signals Weekly Report

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the Market Signals Team.

Discussion Items :

  • MS has no new cash recommendations. Open old crop Dec orders will be rolled to March.
  • Managed funds are net long 204,000 soybean contracts, 71,000 soymeal, 105,000 soyoil and 287,000 corn.
  • Continued positive news today on a virus vaccine supported higher U.S. stock market and most Commodity prices.
  • Hope for increased 2021 U.S. food, feed and fuel demand if there is a reliable vaccine raised talk of 2021 inflation.
  • November 30 selloff linked in part to better Brazil rains forecast and U.S. farmer selling has slowed.
  • Soybean, corn and soyoil futures had become technically overbought.
  • Some still feel March 2021 corn futures and March 2021 soybean futures could trend higher to increase U.S. 2021 acres.
  • Most feel U.S. farmer will sell a January rally to begin to pay 2021 bills.
  • Trade still estimates U.S. 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,550 million bushels versus USDA 1,702 due to higher export demand.
  • Trade still estimates U.S. 2020/21 soybean carryout at 100 million bushels versus USDA 190 due to dryness in South America and higher U.S. exports.
  • USDA estimates World 2020/21 wheat end stocks at a record 320.4 mmt versus 300.7 last year.
  • Russia subsidizing domestic flour buyers which could keep wheat exports available.

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